On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz.

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Richard_Kennaway estimated 90% on 2011-01-02
• gwern estimated 85% and said “let’s operationalize this as ‘sold by Newegg.com’ perhaps?” on 2011-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-01-04
• quanticle estimated 90% and said “The P4 shows that 4GHz is the fastest you can get without expensive processes and water cooling.” on 2011-01-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% and said “Sandy Bridge goes 5ghz+ on air cooling. Someone will overclock and make them generally available on a web retailer. Perhaps not newegg, though.” on 2011-01-21
• army1987 estimated 80% on 2011-10-03
• gimpf estimated 98% on 2011-10-08
• gimpf said “consumer-level means “not extreme cooling hardware” and prices > 2500 € just for the PC itself” on 2011-10-08
• PseudonymousUser said “http://hothardware.com/News/Origin-PC-Announces-Availability-of-Overclocked-Intel-2700Ks-In-Its-Desktops/” on 2011-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “I went through the checkout process on the Origin PC site, and it guarantees “4.5 ghz – 5.2 ghz”. That isn’t really > 5ghz.” on 2011-11-29
• gwern said “current site says 4.7-5.2ghz http://www.originpc.com/genesis-gaming-desktop-specs.asp” on 2011-12-31
• gwern said “just realized that ‘from the factory’ excludes origin, since they have take delivery and tweak it. mark right” on 2012-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-14.