HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue.

Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• 75th estimated 70% on 2013-07-17
• 75th changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue.” on 2013-07-17
• gwern estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
• HonoreDB estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
• TheOriginalSoni estimated 85% and said “The current prediction discussions seem pretty strong and consistent with this prediction” on 2013-07-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-07-25
• mjr estimated 60% on 2013-07-26
• ArisKatsaris estimated 70% on 2013-07-26
• esran estimated 30% on 2013-07-28
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 30% and said “I don’t remember any evidence for this, so my prediction is based only on your predictions.” on 2013-07-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% on 2013-07-31
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-07-31
• holycow81 estimated 22% on 2013-08-04
• E. E. Smith estimated 9% on 2013-08-04
• ygert estimated 55% on 2013-08-13
• nigr estimated 50% and said “wow” on 2013-08-15
• 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-03.