Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015.

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 18% on 2011-01-02
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01on 2011-01-02
  • gwern said “latest news: http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ halting all trading activity. will they reopen or will it be closed for good…?on 2013-03-11
  • RandomThinker said “Good prediction! I wish I saw that beforeon 2013-03-12
  • RandomThinker said “Don’t know if I would have said over 25% either. Adding merged/be sold raises it a bit.on 2013-03-12
  • simplicio said “Whew, glad my dutch books came through before settling “at market value.” This is annoying.on 2013-03-12
  • kuudes estimated 95% and said ““It is our intention to fully liquidate all remaining customer accounts by December 31, 2014.” http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/on 2014-12-01
  • qznc estimated 20% and said “I predict ‘no news’on 2014-12-03
  • kuudes estimated 60% and said “I guess it is very possible they fail in closing.on 2014-12-05
  • gwern said “hm. not sure. if they kick out all existing customers and start up an entirely new prediction market, is it really still Intrade?on 2015-01-01
  • kuudes  judged this prediction right on 2015-01-01.

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