Facebook will be less visitors in 2011

Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

  • Laus_CB estimated 60% on 2011-01-04
  • gwern said “Clarify please. There will be fewer active accounts on FB? Fewer billions of hits? only scores of millions of new accounts rather than hundreds? and so onon 2011-01-04
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “reserve right to change if Laus had some oddball metric in mind. does FB even release these numbers or are we depending on tech blogger pundit guesses?on 2011-01-04
  • gimpf estimated 1% and said “Mostly guesses, except major-milestone announcement, external visitor/month assessments.on 2011-01-09
  • gimpf said “With FB going “financially public”, we should be able to backtrack more easily in future.on 2011-01-09
  • Konkvistador estimated 20% on 2011-07-22
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-11-15
  • gwern said “is anyone going to dispute this or should I just mark it wrong?on 2011-11-30
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-01.

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