'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Chicago#List_of_mayors” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39k5” on 2011-01-06
• Nic_Smith estimated 97% and said “Simply following Intrade on this one.” on 2011-02-15
• gwern said “retrospect, I should gone with conventional wisdom and was way underconfident in this. even allowing for my ignorance of chicago politics, 80% was much better” on 2011-02-23
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-02-23.