'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39kc” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “might be hard to research at the end of the year if I don’t notice any coverage during 2011” on 2011-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-01-08
• kallman estimated 40% and said “If only because of the short timeframe.” on 2011-01-10
• scav estimated 30% on 2011-01-27
• kallman said “Basically we’re looking for another Ted Haggard situation?” on 2011-01-28
• Konkvistador said “20” on 2011-07-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• Sniffnoy estimated 33% on 2011-10-10
• Konkvistador estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-10-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.