'the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.' —orthonormal

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39l6” on 2011-01-06
• gwern estimated 20% and said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706212&z=1294099676222 speaks of global hottest at 34%. going to readjust from that…” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “intrade expired at zero, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/13/second-hottest-june-august-nationwide-us_n_960517.html says second hottest; marking wrong” on 2012-08-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.