'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-01-07
• gwern said “background: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1e” on 2011-01-07
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39mn” on 2011-01-07
• sketerpot estimated 70% on 2011-01-11
• gwern said “can’t find any info on a launch, WP is outdated, http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=24333.0;wap2 seems to imply dead or not launched. mark wrong?” on 2012-01-01
• gwern said “marking wrong in lieu of further info” on 2012-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-14.