GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “short-circuits on completion or death, obviously. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Publication_history” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “note recent precedent of Robert Jordan dying before finishing Wheel of Time (apparently it still had a few years to go judging by how long Sanderson is taking)” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39yu” on 2011-01-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-01-11
• luminosity estimated 35% on 2011-01-13
• muflax estimated 30% and said “I’m optimistic that GRRM will follow his earlier release cycle and finish in <6 years” on 2011-07-24
• Konkvistador estimated 40% on 2011-10-08
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-12
• gwern estimated 30% and said “http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html gives him 18.6 more average years; 2 more planned novels at 6 years a piece = only 12. the odds look much better than I thought” on 2011-11-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on 2011-11-02
• Leo estimated 30% on 2012-01-25
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-03-06
• Anubhav estimated 30% and said “per gwern” on 2012-03-07
• Athrelon estimated 60% on 2012-09-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 65% on 2016-10-07
• Leo estimated 80% on 2023-08-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2023-08-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 84% on 2023-08-08