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A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2011-01-21
  • gwern estimated 65% on 2011-01-22
  • gwern estimated 50% on 2011-11-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-11-07
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.