Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet

Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2013-11-01
• gwern said “doesn’t have to be a nation-state’s op, but should be roughly similar to Ruiu’s claims – infecting USBs, attacking firmware, audio networking etc” on 2013-11-01
• gwern said “links: http://arstechnica.com/security/2013/10/meet-badbios-the-mysterious-mac-and-pc-malware-that-jumps-airgaps/ http://blog.erratasec.com/2013/10/badbios-features-explained.html” on 2013-11-01
• gwern estimated 30% and said “reading a little more of the criticism on HN and how he’s been working on this for so long without any concrete infected files or recordings…” on 2013-11-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-11-01
• lavalamp estimated 25% on 2013-11-01
• Pfft estimated 10% on 2013-11-02
• James Babcock estimated 40% and said “80% chance that the claims are true, but a substantial probability that it won’t be verified because the malware’s author succeeds in destroying all the samples.” on 2013-11-03
• lavalamp said “http://www.rootwyrm.com/2013/11/the-badbios-analysis-is-wrong/” on 2013-11-03
• adbge estimated 10% on 2013-11-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-11-04
• Coornail estimated 15% on 2013-11-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2013-11-12
• jarth estimated 85% and said “This type of malware is a natural evolution of how to covertly target a computer system. If it is not now it will be in the future. You’ll never look at errors in your system logs the same way again.” on 2013-11-12
• David estimated 1% on 2015-10-25
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-11-01.