'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2011-02-14
  • gwern said “http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/tblee/predictions-2011on 2011-02-14
  • gwern said “OpenLeaks is already announced, so we only need one more copycat.on 2011-02-14
  • dkidston estimated 80% on 2011-02-16
  • tedks estimated 50% and said “This is worded too vaguely to be decidable, unless you throw out the second half of the prediction.on 2011-07-01
  • fergus estimated 60% on 2011-08-18
  • gwern said “huh, WP lists no additional copycats in the openleaks article and I haven’t heard of any either. marking wrongon 2012-02-14
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-14.
  • JoshuaZ said “Does Cryptome not count? on 2012-02-14
  • gwern said “cryptome preceded wikileaks, and does a lesser taskon 2012-02-14

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