Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year.

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2013-11-23
  • gwern said “AM here is http://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion/ or another site endorsed by a statement signed by Sanjuro’s key posted on that hidden serviceon 2013-11-23
  • bobpage estimated 40% on 2013-11-24
  • PAUL_D74 estimated 70% on 2014-02-06
  • gwern said “nopeon 2014-11-24
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-24.

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