Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year

Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

  • Glenn estimated 85% on 2008-09-24
  • Glenn changed the deadline from “on 2009-03-16on 2009-03-16
  • Glenn changed the deadline from “on 2009-09-16on 2009-09-28
  • Glenn said “not sure how I got autumn wrongon 2009-09-28
  • Arenamontanus estimated 90% on 2009-10-14
  • Pavitra estimated 98% on 2009-10-23
  • gwern said “Going to mark this right; the confusionists failed, but the machinery broke all on its own. As worded this says nothing about whether the LHC is broken.on 2010-07-29
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.

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