Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

  • Mel Eclarinal estimated 20% on 2011-03-16
  • Ben Doherty estimated 2% and said “It would take too long to replace them with an alternative to shut them all down by 2020on 2011-03-16
  • DavidPercival estimated 99% and said “I’m with Ben, until an alternative is found we cannot even consider eliminating ‘clean’ nuclear poweron 2011-03-17
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 1% on 2011-03-17
  • Ben Doherty said “http://bbc.in/hhzBsHBBC: “Merkel calls time on nuclear age” – I still think that 2020 is too soon, but if it were to be 2050…on 2011-03-17
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2011-03-18
  • gwern estimated 99% and said “this is doable, if you have a few trillion dollars to spare for defueling the reactors and building replacement capacityon 2011-03-18
  • schrödinger  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-26.
  • schrödinger  judged this prediction right on 2011-03-26.
  • schrödinger  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-26.
  • Mel Eclarinal  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-03-28.
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-08-10
  • JoshuaZ said “David and Gwern, did you mean to estimate against when you estimated for? on 2011-08-10
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “whupson 2011-11-23
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-24
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
  • lukas estimated 2% on 2012-05-24
  • JoeK estimated 1% on 2012-05-25
  • themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-07-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07

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