Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence.

Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.

• adbge estimated 50% on 2014-01-31
• adbge changed the deadline from “on 2018-01-31” and changed their prediction from “Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to server her sentence.” on 2014-01-31
• gwern estimated 15% on 2014-01-31
• lettergram estimated 50% on 2014-02-03
• Andrew MacFie said “make joint predictions, not conditionals” on 2016-01-02
• lettergram   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-12-18.
• lettergram   judged this prediction unknown on 2018-12-18.
• lettergram   judged this prediction unknown on 2018-12-18.
• lettergram   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-05.