The Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun.

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged wrong by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.

• Mel Eclarinal estimated 50% on 2011-03-18
• gwern estimated 1% and said “huh? hasn’t it already successfully circled? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MESSENGER_probe#Orbital_encounter_of_Mercury” on 2011-03-18
• Mel Eclarinal   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-21.