The Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun.
- Mel Eclarinal estimated 50% on 2011-03-18
- gwern estimated 1% and said “huh? hasn’t it already successfully circled? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MESSENGER_probe#Orbital_encounter_of_Mercury” on 2011-03-18
- Mel Eclarinal judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-21.
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