Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM

Created by bobpage on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-09-12.

  • bobpage estimated 87% on 2011-03-21
  • gwern estimated 70% on 2011-03-24
  • bobpage estimated 81% on 2011-03-24
  • bobpage estimated 65% and said “iPhone 5 might not be released until Fall. I’m betting against a chart that points at 1GB.on 2011-03-27
  • bobpage estimated 42% on 2011-03-29
  • bobpage estimated 66% and said “iPhone 5 announcement rumored to be Sept 7, and they’ll probably use the same 512MB A5 that the iPad 2 hason 2011-08-24
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2011-08-30on 2011-09-05
  • bobpage estimated 15% and said “http://9to5mac.com/2011/09/26/the-new-iphone/on 2011-10-01
  • bobpage said “This is going to sting on my accuracy graphon 2011-10-01
  • gimpf estimated 60% on 2011-10-08
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2011-11-06
  • Jayson Virissimo said “This is about the iPhone5, not the iPhone4S right?on 2011-11-06
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-11-15
  • bobpage said “Yes, this is about the iPhone 5, not 4S. And by iPhone 5, I mean “next major iPhone model not shaped like a 4 or 4S.”on 2011-11-15
  • bobpage said ““iPhone 5” shaped like a 4/4S would count too. heh.on 2011-11-15
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-30on 2011-12-01
  • bobpage estimated 8% on 2011-12-01
  • bobpage estimated 4% on 2012-07-29
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2012-07-30on 2012-07-29
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2012-08-08on 2012-08-28
  • bobpage said “1GBon 2012-09-12
  • bobpage  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-12.

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