“Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.

• Sandra Åhlén estimated 35% on 2011-04-01
• etrecheesecake   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-04-07.
• Sandra Åhlén   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-04-09.
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2011-04-25
• Ben Doherty said “Intrade is currently running at 2%, maybe I should have checked before I predicted!” on 2011-04-25
• Sandra Åhlén   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-01.