Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year.

Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2014-04-30
• gwern said “http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/nicholas_wade/index.html based on sailer’s summary of an advance copy of A Troublesome Inheritance http://takimag.com/article/the_liberal_creationists_steve_sailer/print” on 2014-04-30
• dk said “James Miller on this prediction: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jex/new_years_prediction_thread_2014/a9r2” on 2014-05-04
• dk   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-05-11.
• dk said “I interpret “still” to mean continuity, so this can be judged before the year is up.” on 2014-05-11
• gwern said “http://dailycaller.com/2014/05/10/30-year-new-york-times-science-writer-out-after-writing-book-about-genetics-race/ wow that was fast” on 2014-05-11
• dk said “He left the science editor position in 1997, so the time.com byline is weird, regardless. https://www.penguinspeakersbureau.com/speakers/page/nicholas_wade” on 2014-05-11
• dk   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-05-11.
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jex/new_years_prediction_thread_2014/awk5 apparently technically not employed, retired years ago, but still writes article. guess I’ll amend to ‘still publishing in the NYT’?” on 2014-05-12
• Afforess   judged this prediction right on 2015-10-09.
• Afforess said “Still publishing as of August 17, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/science/the-butterfly-the-ant-and-the-oregano.html?ref=topics” on 2015-10-09