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Dan McLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712

Created by Pablo on 2014-05-01; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-27.

  • Pablo estimated 96% on 2014-05-01
  • Pablo changed the deadline from “on 2017-04-30” and changed their prediction from “Dan MacLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712” on 2014-05-01
  • themusicgod1 estimated 89% on 2017-04-27
  • gwern said “yep. and he’s given up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_McLaughlin_” on 2017-05-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-05-27.