2012 is not end of this world!

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

  • nam2001 estimated 90% on 2011-04-11
  • nam2001 changed the deadline from “on 2011-10-01on 2011-04-11
  • DavidPercival estimated 95% on 2011-04-12
  • scav estimated 99% and said “Can’t I add more nines? :) Most likely EoW events are huge meteorite or supervolcano. Less often than once per 1000 years, so I really want 99.9%on 2011-04-12
  • gwern estimated 100% and said “wow, like we don’t already have this prediction 5 or 6 times already…on 2011-04-12
  • niekjetten estimated 100% on 2011-04-15
  • torekp estimated 100% and said “rounded to 100. I love the option to get email notifying me that the world is still here!on 2011-04-30
  • zntneo  judged this prediction right on 2011-05-04.
  • zntneo  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-04.
  • zntneo estimated 99% on 2011-05-04
  • minhduc estimated 100% on 2011-05-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2011-05-10
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 99% on 2011-09-06
  • Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-10-12
  • Leo estimated 100% on 2012-01-25
  • saturn estimated 100% on 2012-01-25
  • faws estimated 100% on 2012-01-26
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
  • kuudes said “Testing if PB has a bugon 2016-12-21
  • kuudes  judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
  • kuudes  judged this prediction right on 2016-12-21.
  • kuudes  judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-21.
  • kuudes  judged this prediction right on 2016-12-21.

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