2012 is not end of this world!
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
- nam2001 estimated 90% on 2011-04-11
- nam2001 changed the deadline from “on 2011-10-01” on 2011-04-11
- DavidPercival estimated 95% on 2011-04-12
- scav estimated 99% and said “Can’t I add more nines? :) Most likely EoW events are huge meteorite or supervolcano. Less often than once per 1000 years, so I really want 99.9%” on 2011-04-12
- gwern estimated 100% and said “wow, like we don’t already have this prediction 5 or 6 times already…” on 2011-04-12
- niekjetten estimated 100% on 2011-04-15
- torekp estimated 100% and said “rounded to 100. I love the option to get email notifying me that the world is still here!” on 2011-04-30
- zntneo judged this prediction right on 2011-05-04.
- zntneo judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-04.
- zntneo estimated 99% on 2011-05-04
- minhduc estimated 100% on 2011-05-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2011-05-10
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 99% on 2011-09-06
- Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-10-12
- Leo estimated 100% on 2012-01-25
- saturn estimated 100% on 2012-01-25
- faws estimated 100% on 2012-01-26
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
- kuudes said “Testing if PB has a bug” on 2016-12-21
- kuudes judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction right on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction right on 2016-12-21.