Bitcoin >$5/btc in a week —jimrandomh

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “Price governed by Mt Gox exchange http://mtgox.com/trade/history currently 3.35 btc per USD” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “It only reached $4/btc on a spike of media coverage, and is falling back down; I read it as holders of bitcoin locking in some gains, which puts ceiling on btc” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “long term prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2224” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “contrary short-term prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2629” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “mtgox timing out for me; ivan says high for last few days was $3.8 – certainly not >$5. marking wrong.” on 2011-05-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-08.