Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-05-01
  • gwern said “see short-term fall prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2628on 2011-05-01
  • gwern said “don’t agree it’ll fall this much. fair amount of interest and people will have bargain hunting mindset with the $4 peak recentlyon 2011-05-01
  • gwern said “Looking very bad for this prediction; the question is now more like will it be past $20/btc when this comes due rather than will it be below $1…on 2011-06-05
  • gwern said “last mtgox price: 20.15. marking wrong.on 2011-06-12
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-12.

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