There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month.
- DavidPercival estimated 15% on 2011-05-03
- gwern estimated 5% and said “terrorist groups don’t work on operational tempo where they can launch attacks as they please. if they could, they would. only loners could on cue” on 2011-05-04
- Eunseo estimated 3% on 2011-05-30
- gwern said “taliban launched a number of embarassing pakistan attacks ostensibly over bin laden but no US attacks. marking wrong.” on 2011-06-03
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-03.
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