Bin Laden is still alive!

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

  • minhduc estimated 58% on 2011-05-04
  • Ben Doherty estimated 35% and said “There is a part of me that thinks you might be right, but it won’t be revealed in the next 2 months. He’s off paying ping pong with Elvis.on 2011-05-04
  • scav estimated 5% and said “Unlikely the USA would cut a deal with him, and if they’re just mistaken, it would be easy for him to prove he’s still alive; he hasn’t.on 2011-05-04
  • gwern estimated 3% and said “even Al Qaeda is apparently saying he’s dead, and it would be a huge propaganda coup if they could prove him alive…on 2011-05-07
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-05-08
  • Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “I was very surprised by the news that he had been killed, as I had believed he was already dead and we just didn’t know the circumstanceson 2011-05-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
  • geeyom  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-10.
  • gwern  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-10.
  • sdfjdslkjffj estimated 0% on 2011-05-13
  • tedks estimated 0% on 2011-06-30
  • papermachine estimated 1% on 2011-07-04
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-04.

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