‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-06-09
• gwern said “1 year: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2799” on 2011-06-09
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 75% on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “insider rumor: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-employees-go-nuts-as-zuckerberg-tells-them-the-ipo-is-coming-2011-11” on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-19
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 95% on 2012-01-27
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-02.