Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president.

Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.

  • Saliency estimated 75% on 2011-06-09
  • gwern said “IMF doesn’t have presidents…on 2011-06-12
  • Saliency said “So you think the chance is zero? Make the prediction.on 2011-06-13
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “Fine. IMF does not have presidents, only the World Bank does. and the chance of it being created in 15 days and Lagarde chosen is epsilon.on 2011-06-14
  • gwern said “lagarde chosen ‘managing director’, not president. marking wrong. if this bothers you, get your predictions right in the first place.on 2011-07-05
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-05.
  • Saliency  judged this prediction right on 2011-07-11.
  • Saliency said “gwern your a tool. Have fun hanging out on PredictionBook all by yourself.on 2011-07-11

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