“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding

Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged unknown by Pavitra on 2015-06-18.

  • Pavitra estimated 0% on 2011-06-16
  • Pavitra said “Yuck, apparently “n/a” evaluates to zero when cast to int.on 2011-06-16
  • Pavitra said “Also, the link got cut off: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding-economist/on 2011-06-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “I’m not sure how to interpret “about”. I’m interpreting it at between 2% and 6% as a reasonable range of what is intended. on 2011-06-16
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “I think 2-6 percent is way too generous (100% error counts as correct??). I’d buy no more than ±1%, and if this were my prediction, <±0.5%.on 2011-06-17
  • Pavitra said “There’s no decimal (not “4.0%”), so no tighter than ±0.5% (“not 3% and not 5%”). He said “about” though: maybe ±1%?on 2011-06-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Given the use of “about” gwern’s interpretation seems reasonable. Changing my estimate accordingly. on 2011-06-17
  • kuudes estimated 10% and said “http://oag.ca.gov/crime shows decreasing trend. 10% added in case i misunderstand something here.on 2015-05-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Anyone have current data on this? on 2015-06-16
  • JoshuaZ said “The oag link only goes to 2013 but still shows a decline. It may make sense to adjust the deadline for this another year or two until we can get the data for those out? on 2015-06-16
  • Pavitra said “Seems reasonable.on 2015-06-16
  • Pavitra changed the deadline from “on 2015-06-16on 2015-06-16
  • kuudes said “I run the latest data with http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm and got 1.029 for California between 2012/2011 and 0.999 for United States total. The difference is 0.029 and ratio is 1.029, both less than 4%.on 2015-06-16
  • kuudes said “I would make a new prediction with new judgement date if one wants, instead of postponing the judgement date. And I would hold the difference side responsible for proof, so I would rule this false now.on 2015-06-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Ok. That seems to be clearly false then. on 2015-06-16
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-16.
  • Pavitra said “kuudes’s link only has data through 2012. I get 154,943 in 2011 and 160,944 in 2012, which is a 3.9% increase.on 2015-06-18
  • Pavitra  judged this prediction unknown on 2015-06-18.
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-08

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction