Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2011-06-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-06-19
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 45% on 2011-06-22
• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-06-29
• faul_sname estimated 25% on 2011-07-01
• fergus estimated 80% on 2011-08-18
• Serge estimated 20% on 2011-09-01
• PseudonymousUser said “There was arm-twisting into converting to lesser-value bonds, but afaik they’re still paying interest on the original bonds” on 2011-09-02
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-02.