Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC

Created by bobpage on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-02.

  • bobpage estimated 80% on 2011-06-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-06-19
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 45% on 2011-06-22
  • gwern estimated 60% on 2011-06-29
  • faul_sname estimated 25% on 2011-07-01
  • fergus estimated 80% on 2011-08-18
  • Serge estimated 20% on 2011-09-01
  • bobpage said “There was arm-twisting into converting to lesser-value bonds, but afaik they’re still paying interest on the original bondson 2011-09-02
  • bobpage  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-02.

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