Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-06-27
• gwern said “https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/polls-and-predictions-and-pnp/” on 2011-06-27
• gwern changed their prediction from “Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Cleve” on 2011-06-27
• gimpf estimated 15% on 2011-07-14
• gimpf estimated 5% on 2011-07-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-07-14
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-05-05
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-05-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 28% on 2016-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 18% on 2016-10-08
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-07
• amadeu estimated 3% on 2019-04-07
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-04-09
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-05-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2020-05-27
• Bruno Parga said “Does quantum count?” on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ said “Bruno, since Shor’s algorithm was known already, I assumed that a classical algorithm was intended. ” on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ said “Certainly context of the original pull gwern linked to is classical ” on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.