Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-06-27
• gwern said “http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,770673,00.html” on 2011-06-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2011-07-21
• gwern said “uncertain see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2823” on 2012-06-27
• gwern said “a lot of large bondholders took a ‘voluntary’ haircut but CDOs weren’t triggered… morally, I think this is a wrong prediction” on 2012-09-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-05.
• Jayson Virissimo said “I agree with your scoring.” on 2012-09-05