The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan.

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

• puya estimated 70% on 2011-06-28
• gwern estimated 10% and said “and why such confidence? it has endured since the ’70s…” on 2011-06-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-06-29
• Jach estimated 5% on 2011-08-18
• holycow81 estimated 7% on 2013-05-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-30.