The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan.

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

  • puya estimated 70% on 2011-06-28
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “and why such confidence? it has endured since the ’70s…on 2011-06-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-06-29
  • Jach estimated 5% on 2011-08-18
  • holycow81 estimated 7% on 2013-05-27
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-30.

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