Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-07-02
  • gwern said “http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/nobel-prize-in-literature IMO, murakami is too ‘popular’ and understandable, and Japan does poorly in Nobelson 2011-07-02
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 7% on 2011-07-03
  • papermachine estimated 80% on 2011-07-04
  • Laurent Bossavit said “tags: literatureon 2011-09-04
  • Serge estimated 12% on 2011-10-01
  • ka  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-03.
  • ka  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-03.
  • ka estimated 4% on 2011-10-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-10-03
  • bobpage said “papermachine, did you mean 80% against?on 2011-10-05
  • ka  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-06.

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