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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory.

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

  • TeMPOraL estimated 20% on 2014-08-14
  • tdhellma estimated 10% and said “*2015on 2014-08-14
  • minilodon estimated 5% and said “It is already internationalon 2014-08-14
  • tdhellma said “I was assuming “military conflict” and “acknowledge use of regular military forces” – I guess if you count the Russian special forces then yeah, it’s already happenedon 2014-08-14
  • TeMPOraL said “Yes, I meant a military conflict involving regular military forces of nations other than Russia and Ukraine.on 2014-08-14
  • adbge estimated 15% on 2014-08-16
  • rebellionkid estimated 5% and said “Polish?on 2014-08-17
  • TeMPOraL said “I’m from Poland, I personally worry about the war spilling over here.on 2014-08-17
  • Silver estimated 5% on 2014-08-18
  • TeMPOraL changed the deadline from “on 2014-12-31” and changed their prediction from “The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory.” on 2014-08-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-08-25
  • wtbn estimated 10% and said “It is possible, but the cost of expanding this conflict further is too high. Unless polish government do something stupid…on 2014-08-30
  • TeMPOraL said “Given the overall sentiment in our media, it’s not unlikely that they do.on 2014-08-30
  • kuudes estimated 0% on 2014-12-25
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.