“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976)

Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.

  • ZrCa estimated 50% on 2011-07-03
  • gwern said “Not a very good prediction. what does it actually mean? how would one judge?on 2011-07-03
  • gwern estimated 20% and said ““From one year…Google+ will not appear on Hacker News (except as a mistake, an obituary, an “It failed, I told you so!”, etc). The probability Eliezer assigned to his prediction being correct: 55% <— seems reasonably preciseon 2011-08-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-08-17
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2011-10-10
  • davidiach estimated 0% on 2012-06-06
  • papermachine estimated 0% on 2012-07-03
  • ZrCa  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-07-19.

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