XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-07-11
• muflax estimated 5% on 2011-07-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2011-07-11
• gwern said “note this prediction counts as falsified if he posts/comments but under an account other than XiXiDu” on 2011-07-12
• torekp estimated 40% on 2011-07-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-07-12
• gwern said “bwa ha ha ha; I was way overconfident there, I should’ve been more cynical http://lesswrong.com/lw/742/help_all_this_new_found_rationality_and_room_voor/4ne5” on 2011-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-16.
• torekp said “Darn, I overestimated my ignorance. Next time, more arrogance.” on 2011-08-21