I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.

  • gwern estimated 99% on 2011-07-11
  • gwern said “note: I am not and never have been, a smoker, although I am interested in using nicotine: http://www.gwern.net/Nicotineon 2011-07-11
  • bobpage estimated 98% on 2011-07-21
  • saturn estimated 99% on 2012-01-25
  • gwern said “used a decent amount of gum & patches, but still not the slightest interest in tobacco.on 2016-07-11
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2016-07-11.

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