I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years.
- gwern estimated 99% on 2011-07-11
- gwern said “note: I am not and never have been, a smoker, although I am interested in using nicotine: http://www.gwern.net/Nicotine” on 2011-07-11
- bobpage estimated 98% on 2011-07-21
- saturn estimated 99% on 2012-01-25
- gwern said “used a decent amount of gum & patches, but still not the slightest interest in tobacco.” on 2016-07-11
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2016-07-11.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction