I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.

• gwern estimated 99% on 2011-07-11
• gwern said “note: I am not and never have been, a smoker, although I am interested in using nicotine: http://www.gwern.net/Nicotine” on 2011-07-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 98% on 2011-07-21
• saturn estimated 99% on 2012-01-25
• gwern said “used a decent amount of gum & patches, but still not the slightest interest in tobacco.” on 2016-07-11
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-11.