“We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2011-07-15
• PseudonymousUser said “known Jan 1 2016; “everywhere” = > 90% of legal merchants; need = do you take your wallet when shopping?” on 2011-07-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-07-16
• gwern said “I’m not clear what digital means here. Credit cards are pretty digital…” on 2011-07-17
• JoshuaZ said “I interpreted this as meaning that acceptance of credit cards will be common enough that there’s never a need for cash. ” on 2011-07-17
• gwern said “I think it must mean smartphone-based applications. If you have credit cards, you still need a wallet to carry them in, no?” on 2016-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2016-01-02
• PseudonymousUser said “This is such a terribly-worded prediction; we now have payment terminals that accept smartphone wallets (probably not 90% though), as well as smartphones that pretend to be credit card magstripes, etc” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.androidcentral.com/whats-difference-between-android-pay-and-samsung-pay goes into the details of Samsung Pay” on 2016-01-04
• JoshuaZ said “Not well worded, but seems generally false. There are a lots of places where you can’t do this, I don’t think even in Boston or New York one would be able to get away with no wallet. Anyone object to marking false? ” on 2016-01-04
• JoshuaZ said “It certainly seems well below 90 percent. ” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-04.