I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012

Created by bobpage on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-03-01.

  • bobpage estimated 62% on 2011-07-21
  • bobpage estimated 50% and said “adjusting based on previous overconfidence and slow-ish progresson 2011-09-02
  • bobpage estimated 20% on 2011-12-01
  • bobpage estimated 7% on 2012-01-04
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2012-02-05
  • bobpage  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-01.

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