By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value.

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01

• Konkvistador estimated 20% on 2011-07-21
• Konkvistador changed their prediction from “By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% of its 2004 value.” on 2011-07-21
• Konkvistador said “Prediction is for territory part of the 50 US states in 2011.Idea: http://tinyurl.com/3qa4455Technological progress will likley avert this outcome.” on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-07-22
• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-07-24
• Ben Doherty estimated 11% and said “is this adjusted (real terms)? I’d imagine that by 2150 the numbers might look very different if there are ems on the scene” on 2011-07-27
• roxton estimated 5% and said “My estimate would be different if we could somehow factor out increased productivity.” on 2011-09-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 8% on 2019-01-07