My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-30.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-07-26
• gwern said “http://www.reddit.com/user/gwern/submitted/ 9 submissions” on 2011-07-26
• gwern said “#10=http://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments/j077d/otaku_and_the_beautiful_fighting_girl/ (scooped on submission)” on 2011-07-26
• gwern said “currently hovering at exactly 1.0 average karma (!)” on 2011-07-28
• gwern said “`let x = [-2, -2, 4, -4, 8, 8, -1, -5, -1, 3] in sum x / genericLength x` = 0.8, so marking this wrong. close though. I was definitely overconfident even if it worked out.” on 2011-07-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-30.