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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014.

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

  • Calien estimated 30% on 2014-08-19
  • TeMPOraL estimated 30% on 2014-08-19
  • Porejide estimated 60% on 2014-08-20
  • ChristianKl estimated 35% on 2014-08-29
  • Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
  • Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
  • Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
  • Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
  • Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
  • gimpf estimated 40% on 2014-08-31
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2014-09-01
  • rebellionkid estimated 40% on 2014-09-06
  • MattG estimated 20% on 2014-09-23
  • Emmanuel M. Smith estimated 55% on 2014-10-24
  • from3004 estimated 65% on 2014-10-24
  • from3004 estimated 15% and said “In a recent comment thread, he said he would be done “around Febuary” IIRCon 2014-11-26
  • dpchalmers estimated 5% on 2014-11-29
  • qznc estimated 2% on 2014-12-03
  • kilobug estimated 3% on 2014-12-29
  • rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.