The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.

• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-08-09
• JoshuaZ said “Estimate based on looking at the base rate and then lowering confidence slightly given the novel nature of Curiosity, such as the very large size. ” on 2011-08-09
• gwern estimated 65% and said “Mars is harsh on new things” on 2011-08-10
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 65% on 2011-08-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 43% and said “It hasn’t even launched yet, and this sounds scary: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Mars_Science_Laboratory#Landing_system” on 2011-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 71% and said “Initial launch successful, final burn shortly. ” on 2011-11-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Final burn, now on way. ” on 2011-11-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 69% on 2011-11-26
• JoshuaZ said “Bob, you estimated an around 26% chance of launch failure? ” on 2011-11-26
• PseudonymousUser said “launch failure || lack of launch || problems right after launch, perhaps PB will cure me of my pessimism later” on 2011-11-27
• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Updating on everything being on schedule and seeming to be ok. ” on 2012-07-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 73% and said “Updating on successful course corrections. ” on 2012-07-30
• gyokuro estimated 65% on 2012-08-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% and said “Confirmed guided entry begun successfully, primary risk point still ahead. ” on 2012-08-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Parachute and heat shield worked. ” on 2012-08-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “Retrorockets have fired.” on 2012-08-06
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-08-06.