The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-08-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Estimate based on looking at the base rate and then lowering confidence slightly given the novel nature of Curiosity, such as the very large size. on 2011-08-09
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “Mars is harsh on new thingson 2011-08-10
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 65% on 2011-08-10
  • bobpage estimated 43% and said “It hasn’t even launched yet, and this sounds scary: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Mars_Science_Laboratory#Landing_systemon 2011-08-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 71% and said “Initial launch successful, final burn shortly. on 2011-11-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Final burn, now on way. on 2011-11-26
  • bobpage estimated 69% on 2011-11-26
  • JoshuaZ said “Bob, you estimated an around 26% chance of launch failure? on 2011-11-26
  • bobpage said “launch failure || lack of launch || problems right after launch, perhaps PB will cure me of my pessimism lateron 2011-11-27
  • Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Updating on everything being on schedule and seeming to be ok. on 2012-07-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 73% and said “Updating on successful course corrections. on 2012-07-30
  • gyokuro estimated 65% on 2012-08-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% and said “Confirmed guided entry begun successfully, primary risk point still ahead. on 2012-08-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Parachute and heat shield worked. on 2012-08-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “Retrorockets have fired.on 2012-08-06
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction right on 2012-08-06.

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