'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744128” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3011 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3010” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-28
• sdr estimated 1% on 2012-09-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-11-13
• hampuslj estimated 0% on 2014-09-23
• rebellionkid estimated 0% on 2014-10-06
• deleteyourbrain estimated 1% on 2014-10-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2014-10-13
• kuudes estimated 1% on 2014-10-27
• qznc estimated 1% on 2014-12-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2014-12-31
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.