Ron Paul will be dead by 2017.

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
  • gwern said “actuarily, he has ~11 years left, but he’s a doctor in what seems like very good health, so 6 years? easily done. I may be overconfident putting his rate at 20%on 2011-08-13
  • bobpage estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
  • u_ estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
  • Ken estimated 18% on 2011-09-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2011-11-15
  • Grognor estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-09
  • gwern said “age 81, still ticking: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paulon 2017-01-01
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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