“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=745019&z=1313200257002 non-trading 99%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “cf 2011 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3019” on 2011-08-13
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 40% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ said “Tags [economics] [internet] [corporations]” on 2011-09-04
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 15% on 2012-08-12
• Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2012-11-24
• gwern said “much speculation about an iPO in 2013, no actual announcement, intrade now closing at 0.2. marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.