“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
  • gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750754 15%on 2011-08-13
  • gwern said “don’t entirely understand why she has only 8% for new hampshire and 15% for south carolina – are the new hampshire republicans really that moderate? shouldn’t a likely loss in NH damage her SC chances?on 2011-08-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
  • faws  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-16.
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-16.
  • JoshuaZ said “Hasn’t happened yet. on 2012-01-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-01-16
  • faws estimated 0% and said “She officially announced that she’s stepping aside over a week ago, and was in the single digits in polls even when she was still running. That she won’t win the primary is a lot clearer than many things judged on this site.on 2012-01-16
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2012-01-21
  • faws  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-22.

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