“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 13% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=735838 15% (but obviously they can’t both be 15%…)” on 2011-08-14
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-15
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.