“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 4% on 2011-08-14
  • gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=694847 20%on 2011-08-14
  • gwern said “20% is on crack! how does it go from 3% for 2011 and to 20% for 2012? there’s a 17% chance China will attack Taiwan during 2012? get realon 2011-08-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Wow. If I didn’t live in the US this would be so ripe for the picking on intrade. on 2011-08-15
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.

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